The dynamism of the political landscape often sees many theories asserting that voters change their minds right before an election. Typically, this idea is rested on the assumption of the undecided or impressionable voter, who, swayed by late campaign promises or publicized gaffes, makes a game-changing decision at the eleventh hour. However, a recent poll offers fascinating insights into why this theory may not hold water and why we should be skeptical of voters changing their minds.
Firstly, it is essential to understand the idealistic image of a voter who continually reassesses political candidates based on incoming information is quite elusive from a statistical standpoint. The poll shows that a significant majority of voters, around 70-80%, have their minds made up long before the campaign enters its final stages. This trend is primarily attributed to party loyalty, where voters align with a particular political party and stick with their choice, irrespective of the twists and turns of the election campaign. Essentially, this means the probability of such voters changing their affiliations solely based on new information is often quite small.
Secondly, the poll reveals that the undecided voter—frequently hyped in media circles and among campaigners—is, in reality, a tiny segment of the electorate. Typically, undecided voters only comprise 5% to 10% of the total voters. Even more interestingly, these voters are often not policy-driven, instead of making their choice based on their general impression of a candidate rather than any specific policy issues. This information, therefore, casts doubt on the presupposed potency of late-stage campaign strategies that aim to tip the scales through last-minute policy announcements or attack ads.
Thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, the poll indicates the deep-rooted influence of cognitive biases that continue to mold our decision-making process, often unconsciously. Confirmation bias, one such key cognitive bias, suggests that individuals are more likely to consume information that confirms their existing beliefs while disregarding contrary evidence, further solidifying their current stance. This psychological predisposition among voters makes them more impervious to change, notwithstanding consuming an array of information during an election season.
Lastly, the changing landscape of how information is disseminated, specifically the advent of social media platforms, has polarized views rather than lead to a change of minds. The algorithms of these platforms often perpetuate echo chambers, which ensure you see what you want to, further strengthening your biases and pre-existing beliefs. As such, it proves challenging to change an individual’s political opinion when their
