Monitoring the performance of the United States Oil Fund (USO) is essential for both short-term traders and long-term investors. Many are now wondering if USO can reach the record high of $83. There are some key levels to watch that could predict this potentially substantial hike. It’s important to understand that numerous factors need to propel USO to such a high level, but here are the pivotal elements investors should examine.
1. Demand and Supply Balance: Oil prices largely depend on the basic economics of demand and supply. If the global demand for oil surpasses its supply, the prices, and consequently the USO, will likely rise. The resumption of international travel and economic activities could contribute towards increased demand, but the OPEC+ decisions on production cuts are also critical to watch.
2. Value of US Dollar: The value of the USD is inversely proportional to oil prices. So, when the Dollar weakens, it tends to push the price of commodities, including the oil price, up. If the Dollar continues to depreciate, it could pave the way for the USO to soar to $83.
3. Key Support and Resistance Levels: In any trading asset, including the USO, there are specific support and resistance levels that are worth keeping an eye on. Right now, the resistance level is around $50, and the support level is near $40. If USO can break past these to higher resistance levels, it may well head towards $83.
4. Global Economic and Political Climate: The overall economic health of major oil-consuming countries like the USA, China, and countries in the European Union significantly impacts oil prices. Similarly, political stability in oil-producing countries also influences the market. Any significant changes in these areas should be monitored closely.
5. Technological Advancements: Advancements that lead to energy efficiency or promote alternative energy sources have potential implications for oil prices. Major breakthroughs that lower dependency on oil can depress oil prices. Investors should follow development on this front to gauge the potential impact on USO’s performance.
6. Climate Policies: With world governments pushing for climate change policies, potential shifts can greatly influence oil demand and in turn, affect USO. Regulations promoting electric vehicles or imposing restrictions on fossil fuels can decrease oil demand, thus impacting USO.
7. Speculative Trading: Finally, speculative trading can also drive the USO’s price movement. This involves buying commodity futures contracts with the expectation that prices will rise in the future.
